658 AXPZ20 KNHC 102156 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An elongated area of low pressure is centered along the monsoon trough near 12.5N105W. This low pressure area has recently developed in association with a tropical wave in that vicinity and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for sustained convection and improved organization, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days, while the system moves WNW at around 10 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and also a high probability for development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 10N between 78W and 83W. A tropical wave is along 94W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 91W AND 100W. A tropical wave is along 104W with associated 1009 mb low pres near 12.5N105W, moving W 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 100W AND 109W. A tropical wave is along 122W, moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 109W AND 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N74.5W TO 08N86W TO 13N102W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12.5N105W TO 10N129W TO 13.5N140W. No significant convection is present in the vicinity of the trough that is not associated with tropical waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge residing over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula this afternoon will be weakened Tue night through Thu night as the associated high over the NE Pacific slides eastward by deep low pres approaching SW Canada. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California during this time. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds will prevail over the northern Gulf of California, and on the E side of the trough through Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region Wed through Sat night as high pressure builds SW over the Gulf of Mexico. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec could increase to near gale force Fri night through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo region through the forecast period as fresh tradewinds persist across most of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of low pressure is centered several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico near 12.5N105W. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Please see the special features section above for more information. The remnant low of Juliette is located just W of the area near 24N141.5W. Winds and seas associated with this low will shift W of 140W this evening as the low continues to move into the Central Pacific. High pressure centered N of the area will shift gradually eastward throughout the week and generally maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W. $$ Stripling