000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1323 UTC Tue Sep 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1420 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure is centered near 10N105W. This area of low pressure that recently developed in association with a tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves WNW at around 10 kt. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high probability for development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N79W to 18N80W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 10N E of 82W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 06N91W to 17N83W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 16N between 92W and 98W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N104W to low pres 1009 mb near 10N104W to 16N104W moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 09N to 16N between 99W and 114W. A tropical wave has an axis extending from 03N121W to 16N120W moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 13N between 116W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to low pres 1009 mb near 11N104W to 12N140W. No significant convection is present in the vicinity of the trough that is not associated with tropical waves. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge residing over the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula today will be weakened Tue night through Thu night by low pres approaching SW Canada. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds will prevail over the northern Gulf of California, and on the E side of the trough through Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region Wed through Sat night as high pressure builds SW over the western Gulf of Mexico. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec could increase to near gale force Fri night through Sat night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad area of low pressure is centered several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico near 10N104W. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Please see the special features section above for more information. The remnant low of Juliette is located just W of the area near 24.5N141W. Winds and seas associated with this low will shift W of 140W by this evening as the low continues to move into the Central Pacific. High pressure centered N of the area will generally maintain moderate NE winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W. $$ CAM