000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100844 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0840 UTC Tue Sep 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure has developed in association to a tropical wave, and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves WNW at around 10 kt. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high probability for development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W N of 03N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 07N to 13N between 87W and 91W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W/102W N of 03N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 14N between 100W and 110W. This wave has the potential for tropical cyclone development. Please see the special features section above for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W from 05N to 16N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 114W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to 12N101W to 11N117W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 10N between 91W and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 09N to 12N between 110W and 114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 12N between 122W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula during the next several days. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds will prevail across the northern Gulf of California, and on the E side of the trough through Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected to pulse at night across the Tehuantepec region Wed through Sat night as high pressure builds SW over the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... We are monitoring a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This disturbance has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Please see special features section above for more information. The remnant low of Juliette is located near 24N139.5W. Overnight scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong winds continue within 150 nm N of the low, with seas to 10 ft. The remnant low will cross 140W this morning. Winds and seas in this area will diminish by late today as the low continues to move away from the forecast region. High pressure will then prevail across the northern forecast waters. $$ AL