000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100226 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 025 UTC Tue Sep 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is along 101W N of 05N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, particularly from 09N to 13N between 101W and 107W. Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves WNW at around 10 kt. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and a high probability for development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W N of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is along the wave axis from 12.5N to 14.5N affecting parts of El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave from 06N to 09N between 91W and 94W. A tropical wave is along 118W from 05N to 16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 08N to 11N between 112W and 121W. A tropical wave is along 140W from 06N to 16N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 16N W of 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 07N81W to 11N88W to 12N101W to 12N120W to 11N129W. The ITCZ continues from 11N129W to beyond 12N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present from 10N to 13N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California peninsula producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range in this area, with the exception of 8 to 9 ft seas in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia. Little change is expected in this weather pattern over the next several days, with seas N of Punta Eugenia subsiding below 8 ft by late Tue. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California. Expect fresh to locally strong southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California, and on the E side of the trough tonight through Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region Wed through Sat night as high pressure builds SW over the western Gulf of Mexico. Near gale force winds may occur at night, with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, Wed through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Juliette continues to move westward while gradually weakening. Currently, it is located near 24N138.5W, and it is expected to cross 140W late tonight into Tue morning. Swell generated by this feature continues to produce seas 8 ft or greater covering the waters from 22N to 28N and W of 136W. Winds and seas in this area will diminish by late Tue as the low continues to move away from the forecast region. Then, a ridge will build across the northern forecast waters. $$ GR