000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092116 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2018 UTC Mon Sep 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is along 100W N of 05N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. This wave continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, particularly from 08N to 15N between 97W and 105W. Development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at around 10 kt. This system has a medium probability of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, and a high probability for development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W N of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. The wave is helping to induce some convective activity over parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 117W from 05N to 16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 12N between 110W and 120W. A tropical wave is along 139W from 06N to 18N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 16N W of 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pres 1009 located over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 07N80W to 11N87W to 12N110W to 12N117W to 11N128W. The ITCZ continues from 11N128W to beyond 12N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present from from 11N to 15N between 92W and 97W, and from 10N to 13N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge across the waters W of Baja California peninsula will maintain gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the offshore forecast waters during the next several days, with seas of 8 to 9 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia through late Tue. Low pressure over the U.S. desert southwest will promote fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight through Tue night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region Wed through Sat night as high pressure builds SW over the western Gulf of Mexico. Near gale force winds may occur Thu night, and again Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Juliette is centered near 24NN137.5W, and continues to produce fresh to strong winds within about 180 nm N semicircle of center. This system will continue to shift westward while weakening. It is expected to cross 140W tonight or early Tue morning. Swell generated by this feature continues to produce seas 8 ft or greater covering the waters from 22N to 29N and W of 135W. Winds and seas in this area will gradually diminish by late Tue as the low continues to move away from the forecast region. $$ GR