000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090846 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0840 UTC Mon Sep 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W N of 05N moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 85W and 93W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 08N to 15N between 96W and 103W. This tropical wave is being monitored for the potential of tropical cyclone development. This system has a low probability of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, with a high probability for development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 112W and 120W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 136W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 133W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N110W to 12N120W to 11N126W. The ITCZ continues from 11N126W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 103W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 10N to 14N between 120W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge across the waters W of Baja California peninsula will maintain fresh to locally strong NW to N winds over the forecast waters N of Punta Eugenia over the next couple of days. Low pressure over the U.S. desert southwest will promote fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf of California through Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri night as high pressure builds SW over the western Gulf of Mexico. Near gale force winds may occur Thu night, and again Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Juliette is centered near 24N135.5W, and continues to produce fresh to strong winds within about 180 nm N semicircle of center. Overnight altimeter pass indicates seas peaking near 12 ft. This system will continue to shift westward while weakening. It is expected to cross 140W tonight into Tue morning. Swell generated by this feature continues to produce seas 8 ft or greater covering the waters N of 21N and W of 132W. Winds and seas in this area will diminish by late Tue as the low moves farther W of the area. An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the southwest of the southern coast of Mexico the next couple of days in association to a tropical wave currently near 97W/98W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week. $$ AL