000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090214 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 029 UTC Mon Sep 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W N of 05N moving W at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 06N to 09N between 85W and 92W. A tropical wave is along 98W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 14N between 95W and 105W. This tropical wave is being monitored for the potential of tropical cyclone development. This system has a low probability of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, with a medium chance for development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave is along 115W from 05N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 09N to 12N between 105W and 115W, and from 10N to 14N between 115W and 120W. A tropical wave is along 134W from 05N to 15N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is taking place from 07N to 15N between 130W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 09N85W to 12N98W to 12N115W to 11N130W. The ITCZ continues from 11N133W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California. Winds have increased to 20-25 kt north of Punta Eugenia. The most recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these wind, forecast to persist over the next couple of days, with combined seas of 8 to 10 ft. Low pressure over the U.S. desert southwest will promote fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight through Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri night as high pressure builds SW over the western Gulf of Mexico. Near gale force winds may occur Thu night, and again Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Juliette is centered near 24N134.5W, and continues to produce fresh to strong winds within about 210 nm N semicircle of center with seas to 13 ft in the NE quadrant. This system will continue to shift westward the next few days while weakening. It is forecast to cross 140W Mon night into Tue morning. Swell generated by this remnant low has resulted in seas 8 ft or greater covering the waters N of 21N and W of 130W tonight. Winds and seas in this area will diminish by late Tue as the low weakens and moves farther W of the area. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in the next couple of days well to the southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the low moves west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 kt. The low is forecast to be spawned by a tropical wave currently near 98W. $$ GR