000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1933 UTC Sun Sep 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W N of 06N moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen mainly S of the monsoon trough from 06N to 09N between 78W and 90W. A tropical wave is along 97W from 05N to 16N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 13N between 90W and 104W. This tropical wave is being monitored for the potential of tropical cyclone development. This system has a low probability of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, with a medium chance for development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. A tropical wave is along 113W from 05N to 17N, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is near the wave axis from 08N to 12N between 109W and 113W. A tropical wave is along 132W from 05N to 16N, moving W around 25 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 08N to 15N between 130W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1010 mb located over northern Colombia near 11N73W to 08N80W to 11N97W to 12N113W to 11N130W. The ITCZ continues from 11N133W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 120W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge is building west of the Baja California peninsula with NW to N winds across the offshore forecast waters west of the peninsula. Winds have increased to 20-25 kt north of Punta Eugenia. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. These winds are forecast to persist over the next couple of days, with combined seas of 8 to 10 ft. Low pressure over the U.S. desert southwest will promote fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf of California tonight through Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri night as high pressure builds SW over the western Gulf of Mexico. Near gale force winds may occur Thu night, and again Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will generally prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu night. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Juliette is centered near 24N133.5W. High pressure is centered NW of the area near 36N145W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the remnant low is supporting near gale force winds N of the low center as depicted by latest scatterometer pass. The remnant low will continue to shift westward the next few days while weakening. It is forecast to cross 140W Mon night into Tue morning. Swell generated by this system has resulted in seas 8 ft or greater covering the waters N of 20N and W of 129W. Winds and seas in this area will diminish by Tue night as the low weakens and moves farther W of the area. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in the next couple of days well to the southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the week while the low moves west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 kt. The low is forecast to be spawned by a tropical wave currently near 97W. $$ GR