028 AXPZ20 KNHC 080843 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0830 UTC Sun Sep 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W N of 04N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 92W and 96W, and from 09N to 16N between 96W and 100W. This tropical wave is being monitored for the potential of tropical cyclone development. There is a low probability of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, with a medium chance for development within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. The axis of a tropical wave is near 110W from 05N to 18N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 109W and 111W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 129W from 05N to 18N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 126W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N94W to 11N102W to 10N109W to 12N120W to 09N131W. The ITCZ extends from 09N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 10N between 81W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 11N to 14N between 101W and 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 15N between 114W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge is building west of the Baja California peninsula with NW to N winds across the offshore forecast waters west of the peninsula. Winds will strengthen north of Punta Eugenia through tonight. Low pressure over the U.S. desert southwest will promote fresh to strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf of California through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region Wed night through Thu night as a high pressure builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo through early this morning, and then again Tue night through Thu as a high pressure builds N of area. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Juliette is centered near 24.5N131W. High pressure is centered NW of the area near 36N143W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and remnant low is supporting near gale force winds N of the low center as depicted by the overnight scatterometer pass. The remnant low will continue to shift westward the next few days while weakning. The remnant low will shift west of the forecast waters Tue. Swell generated from the system has resulted in seas 8 ft or greater covering the waters N of 20N and W of 127W. Winds and seas will diminish early next week as the low weakens and shifts W of the area. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form early next week a few hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico associated to a tropical wave currently near 95W. Please see the tropical wave section above for more information. $$ AL