000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080206 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 052 UTC Sun Sep 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W from 05N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 105W and 111W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 127W from 05N to 16N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 13N between 123W and 131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to 07N84W to 11N109W to 09N127W to 09N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 09N between 84W and 89W, and near 13N137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge is building west of the Baja California peninsula with NW to N winds across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja. Winds will strengthen north of Punta Eugenia tonight through Sun night, with seas building to 9 or 10 ft near 30N on Sun. Low pressure over the U.S. desert southwest will promote fresh to strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf of California later tonight through Mon, with seas likely building to 8 ft. Expect moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early Sun morning. Then, fresh to strong northerly winds are expected across the Tehuantepec region Wed night through Thu night as a high pressure builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Expect moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight into early Sunday morning, and then again Tue night through Thu as a high pressure builds N of area. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Long period cross equatorial SW swell with seas up to 9 ft will reach roughly the waters S of 10N between 90W and 120W Sun and Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Juliette degenerates into a post-tropical cyclone, and the last advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center at 07/2100 UTC. Juliette is still producing maximum sustained winds of 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt and seas to 14 ft. Latest visible satellite imagery indicated a very well defined swirl of mainly low clouds. A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple of days. Juliette's motion to the west is expected to continue through the middle of next week, with a gradual decrease in forward speed through Tuesday. Swell generated by Juliette will produce seas 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 127W tonight, and mainly N of 20N W of 130W on Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE trades will prevail between a ridge, that covers the NW forecast waters and north of the monsoon trough. Little chance is expected over the next several days. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form early next week a few hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appears conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through five days. $$ GR