696 AXPZ20 KNHC 071546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1513 UTC Sat Sep 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Juliette is centered near 24.2N 128.4W at 07/1500 UTC moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Deep convection associated with Juliette has ceased. Scattered showers are present within 120 nm of the center. Juliette's motion to the west is expected to continue through the middle of next week. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and Juliette is expected to become a post- tropical cyclone later today. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W from 05N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 104W and 108W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 115W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N100W to 14N129W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted north of 05N east of 85W, north of 07N between 92W and 98W, from 10N to 15N between 104W and 108W, and from 10N to 13N between 115W and 120W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 10N- 13N between 125W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge is building west of the Baja California peninsula with NW to N winds across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja. Winds will strengthen north of Punta Eugenia tonight and Sun. Low pressure over the U.S. desert southwest will promote fresh to strong SE to S winds over the northern Gulf of California Sun through Tue. A weak north-south pressure gradient across SE Mexico is forcing force moderate to fresh N winds this morning across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. No tropical cyclone activity nor any significant long-period swell are expected over the Mexican offshore zones for the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak north-south pressure gradient over Central America is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E winds this morning in the Gulf of Papagayo before diminishing later today. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Long-period SW swell up to 8 ft will reach the equatorial zones on Sun through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Juliette. An altimeter pass from 0625 UTC overnight just west of Juliette's center indicated waveheights somewhat less than anticipated. The waveheights are reduced slightly in the sea state analysis and forecasts. Swell generated by Juliette will produce seas 8 ft or greater over much of the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 125W today. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE trades prevail southwest of the surface ridge that extends from 33N124W to 20N109W and north of the monsoon trough. Little chance is expected over the next several days. No tropical cyclone activity is likely for the next several days. Long-period SW swell up to 8 ft will reach up to 10N through Wed. $$ Landsea