000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052144 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2049 UTC Thu Sep 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Juliette is centered near 21.3N 120.9W at 05/2100 UTC moving toward the NW or 310 degrees at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm NW and 75 nm SE semicircles of center. Juliette will begin to move toward the west-northwest tonight or early Friday. A turn toward the west is forecast on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue through the weekend. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm on Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W N of 05N moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 90 and 96W. A tropical wave is along 106W from 04N to 15N moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted behind the wave axis from 07N to 12N between 102W and 106W. A tropical wave is along 115W, from 04N to 15N moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the wake of the wave axis from 06N to 12N between 110W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 08N84W to 10N91W to 11N105W to 08N113W, then resumes from 13N121W to 11N130W to 12N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 119W and 125W. Similar convection is also observed from 09N to 12N W of 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hurricane Juliette continues to move away from Baja California Sur. However, large waves associated with Juliette will continue to propagate across the far western portion of the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Fri. As Juliette moves westward, a ridge will build between the tropical cyclone and the Baja California peninsula. Winds will remain light and variable across the Baja California offshore waters through Fri, with the return of the normal NW to N winds by Fri night. Then, gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail through Sun, with fresh to strong winds N of Punta Eugenia through Sun night. Thereafter, moderate to fresh winds are expected N of Cabo San Lazaro through Tue morning. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh north winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly at night during the weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds may develop over the northern Gulf of California early on Sun as a low pressure trough deepens along the Baja California peninsula. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat. The most recent scatterometer pass provided observations of these wind speeds extending downwind to near 90W. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds will persist N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Juliette. Swell generated by Juliette will continue to propagate outward over the next few days, resulting in a large area of seas greater than 8 ft around the storm. Rough seas will continue near the center of Juliette through the weekend. Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Twelve-E west of the area will continue to move away from the forecast area, with lingering seas to 8 ft from 12N to 20N W of 130W. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail west of 130W and north of the monsoon trough. Little change is expected elsewhere over the next several days. $$ GR