652 AXPZ20 KNHC 050945 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Sep 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Juliette is centered near 20.2N 119.1W at 05/0900 UTC moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. GOES-17 imagery shows a strong convective cloud band wrapping around the the center, with an eye often evident in the imagery for a few minutes. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm of the center, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center. Juliette is forecast to slowly weaken during the next several days as is moves west- northwest across decreasing sea surface temperatures. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, north of 05N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W from 03N to 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from near 09N78W to 10N105W to 08N111W to 10N116W, then continues from 14N121W to 10N133W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the trough axis between 91W and 102W, and from 06N to 11N between 109W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hurricane Juliette is slowly moving away from the Baja California Sur offshore waters, and tropical storm conditions are not expected over the far outer waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. However, large waves will persist over the far western portion of zone PMZ015 this morning. A weak ridge north of Juliette will maintain light to gentle winds over the Baja California Norte waters for the next couple days. The ridge will strengthen late in the week, supporting moderate to fresh northwest winds off the Baja California coast late Fri through Sun. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong north winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sat. Fresh to strong southerly winds may develop over the northern Gulf of California on Sun as a low pressure trough deepens along the Baja California peninsula. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms persist over much of Central America south of Nicaragua, including Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Juliette. Swell generated by Juliette will continue to propagate outward over the next few days, resulting in a large area of seas greater than 8 ft around the storm. Rough seas will continue near the center of Juliette through the weekend. Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Twelve-E west of the area will continue to move away from the forecast area, with lingering seas to 9 ft from 13N to 15N west of 138W expected. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail west of 130W and north of the monsoon trough. Little change is expected elsewhere over the next several days. $$ Mundell