000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050256 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Sep 05 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Juliette is centered near 19.8N 118.5W at 05/0300 UTC moving WNW or 290 degrees at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen slightly to 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has decreased slightly to 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Last visible GOES-17 imagery shows what appears to be the eye feature of Juliette becoming obscured by mainly mid to high level clouds. The satellite imagery also shows that there are a few breaks in the cloud cover over the eastern semicircle. has intruded into the circulation. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center in the northern semicircle and within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of the center in the southern semicircle. Scattered moderate convection depicting a broken rain band is within 30 nm either side of a line from 22N116W to 22N119W. Juliette is forecast to undergo slow weakening during the next several days as is moves slightly faster toward the west-northwest across decreasing sea surface temperatures and into less thermodynamic conditions. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Twelve-E just west of the area is centered near 12.3N 141.4W at 05/0300 UTC moving WSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 10N to 14N west of 138W. The depression is forecast to continue to track to the WSW through tonight, then gradually track to the west over the next couple of days with little change in forward speed. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression may become a tropical storm later Thu or Fri as it continues to move farther away from the forecast waters. See latest HFO forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMCP3/WTPA23 PHFO for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W, extending southward across western Costa Rica to the eastern Pacific near 05N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave axis from 06N to 09N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 05N to 10N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W/103W from 03N to 15N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the wave axis from 09N-12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of Colombia southwestward to the northern Gulf of Panama near 09N79W and to 11N89W to 10N100w to 13N113W, where it briefly ends. It resumes near 13N123W to 10N131W to 12N139W. Aside from convection related to the tropical wave near 83W as described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough between 80W and 86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 88W and 95W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 130W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hurricane Juliette is slowly moving away from the Baja California Sur offshore waters, and sustained tropical storm force winds are no longer expected over the far outer waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. However, large wave heights in the range of 8-12 ft linger over the far western portion of zone PMZ015, with higher seas just west of the offshore zone. The earlier 8-9 ft wave heights due to swell from Juliette that were noted over he outer waters west of Cabo San Lazaro are gradually subsiding and will continue to do so through Fri as Juliette continues moving away from the region. A weak high pressure ridge north of Juliette will maintain light to gentle winds over the Baja California Norte waters for the next couple days. The ridge will strengthen late in the week, supporting moderate to fresh northwest winds off the Baja California coast late Fri through Sun. Elsewhere, fresh to strong north winds are expected to funnel across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri through Sat afternoon. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds may develop over the northern Gulf of California on Sun as a low pressure trough deepens along the Baja California peninsula. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of Central America south of the border between Honduras and Nicaragua as observed on satellite imagery. They are generally moving in a westward direction. The activity over and offshore Costa Rica is being enhanced to some extent by the tropical wave that is along 84W. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the trough for the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo Thu through Sun as a north-south pressure gradient develops across Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Juliette. Altimeter data from this afternoon pass east of Juliette sampled seas to 32 ft near 20N117W, with 8 ft seas extending as far south as 13N. Swell generated by Juliette will continue propagating outward over the next couple days, resulting in a large area of seas greater than 8 ft around the storm from roughly 13N to 24N between 118W and 133W by Fri night. Rough seas will continue near the center of Juliette through the weekend, gradually subsiding as the storm weakens while passing westward across the northern waters. Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Twelve-E just west of the area will continue to pull off to the west of the forecast waters through Thu night while it gradually strengthens. Relatively weak high pressure will remain across the northern forecast waters west of 120W. Gentle to moderate trades are generally to the west of 130W and north of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the high seas domain, and little change is expected over the next couple days. $$ Aguirre