000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 04 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Juliette is centered near 19.4N 117.8W at 04/2100 UTC moving WNW or 295 degrees at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Visible and infrared satellite imagery shows that the eye of Juliette has become rather large and ragged this afternoon. The imagery also shows that there are a few breaks in the cloud cover over the eastern semicircle. has intruded into the circulation. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrants, and also within 60 nm of the center in the SE and NW quadrants. Scattered moderate convection denotes a a rain band and is within 30 nm either side of a line from 18N117W to 19N116W to 21N118W. Juliette is forecast to undergo slow weakening during the next several days as is moves slightly faster toward the west- northwest across decreasing sea surface temperatures and into less thermodynamic conditions. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Twelve-E just west of the area is centered near 12.7N 141.4W at 04/2100 UTC moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The depression remains disorganized far to the southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 10N to 14N west of 138W. The depression is forecast to continue to track to the WSW through tonight, then ' gradually track to the west over the next couple of days with little change in forward speed. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression may become a tropical storm later Thu or Fri as it continues to move farther away from the forecast waters. See latest HFO forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMCP3/WTPA23 PHFO for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W, extending southward across eastern Panama and into the eastern Pacific near 05N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave axis from 05N to 08N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W from 03N to 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N within 60 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of Colombia southwestward to the northern Gulf of Panama near 09N79W and to 11N89W to 10N100w to 13N113W, where it briefly ends. It resumes near 13N123W to 10N131W to 12N139W. Aside from convection related to the tropical wave near 83W as described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough between 80W and 86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 88W and 95W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 130W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hurricane Juliette is slowly moving away from the Baja California Sur offshore waters, and sustained tropical storm force winds are no longer expected over the far outer waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. However, large wave heights in the range of 8-14 ft linger over the far western portion of zone PMZ015, with higher seas just west of the offshore zone. The earlier 8-9 ft wave heights due to swell from Juliette that were noted over he outer waters west of Cabo San Lazaro are gradually subsiding and will continue to do so through Fri as Juliette continues moving away from the region. A weak high pressure ridge north of Juliette will maintain light to gentle winds over the Baja California Norte waters for the next couple days. The ridge will strengthen late in the week, supporting moderate to fresh northwest winds off the Baja California coast late Fri through Sun. Elsewhere, northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec could pulse to moderate to fresh speeds Fri and this weekend. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds may develop over the northern Gulf of California on Sun as a low pressure trough deepens along the Baja California peninsula. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Central America and Colombia in the vicinity of the monsoon trough using recent satellite imagery and lightning data. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the trough for the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo Thu through Sun as a north-south pressure gradient develops across Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Juliette. Altimeter data from this afternoon pass east of Juliette sampled seas to 32 ft near 20N117W, with 8 ft seas extending as far south as 13N. Swell generated by Juliette will continue propagating outward over the next couple days, resulting in a large area of seas greater than 8 ft around the storm from roughly 13N to 25N between 112W and 134W by early on Fri. Rough seas will continue near the center of Juliette through the weekend, gradually subsiding as the storm weakens while passing westward across the northern waters. Elsewhere, Tropical Depression Twelve-E just west of the area will continue moving west of the forecast waters through Thu night. High pressure prevails across the northern forecast waters west of 120W. Gentle to moderate trades are generally to the west of 130W and north of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the high seas domain, and little change is expected over the next couple days. $$ Aguirre