000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041520 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Wed Sep 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Juliette is centered near 19.5N 117.1W at 04/1500 UTC moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm NE and 90 nm SW quadrants of the center. Elsewhere, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 150 nm of the center. Slow weakening is forecast during the next several days as Juliette moves slightly faster toward the west- northwest. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Twelve-E is centered near 13.2N 140.5W at 04/1500 UTC moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N west of 138W. A general westward motion at a similar or slightly slower forward speed is anticipated for the next two to three days as Twelve-E moves away from the forecast area. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W, extending southward across western Panama into the eastern Pacific. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 06N within 60 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W south of 15N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N within 60 nm of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 10N90W to 11N108W, then resumes southwest of Juliette from 13N123W to 11N130W to 13N136W. Scattered strong convection is occurring from 15N to 19N between 101W and 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 84W and 90W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hurricane Juliette is slowly moving away from the Baja California Sur offshore waters, and sustained tropical storm force winds are no longer expected over the far outer waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. Recent altimeter data indicates very rough seas persist east of Juliette over the western portion of PMZ015 this morning, likely around 8-16 ft with higher seas just west of the offshore zone. This altimeter pass also shows 8-9 ft seas in swell from Juliette extend into the outer waters west of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas will gradually subside to less than 8 ft by Fri as Juliette continues moving away from the region. A weak high pressure ridge north of Juliette will maintain light to gentle winds over the Baja California Norte waters for the next couple days. The ridge will strengthen late in the week, supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off the Baja California coast late Fri through Sun. Elsewhere, northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec could pulse to moderate to fresh speeds Fri and this weekend. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds may develop over the northern Gulf of California on Sun as a low pressure trough deepens along the Baja California peninsula. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off the coast of Central America and Colombia in the vicinity of the monsoon trough using recent satellite imagery and lightning data. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the trough for the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo Thu through Sun as a north-south pressure gradient develops across Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Juliette. A recent 11 UTC altimeter pass east of Juliette sampled seas to 21 ft near 20N116W, with 8 ft seas extending as far south as 13N. Swell generated by Juliette will continue propagating outward over the next couple days, resulting in a large area of seas greater than 8 ft around the storm from roughly 17N to 30N between 119W and 134W on Fri morning. Rough seas will continue near the center of Juliette through the weekend, gradually subsiding as the storm weakens while passing westward across the northern waters. Elsewhere, newly-formed Tropical Depression Twelve-E has crossed 140W and will continue moving west of the forecast area today. High pressure prevails across the northern forecast waters west of 120W. Gentle to moderate trade winds were shown in overnight scatterometer data west of 130W, north of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the high seas domain, and little change is expected over the next couple days. $$ Reinhart