000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040910
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Sep 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Juliette centered near 19.1N 116.4W at 04/0900 UTC 
moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 966 
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75 nm in 
the western semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is seen elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. Slow 
weakening is forecast during the next several days as Juliette 
encounters less favorable environmental conditions. See latest 
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 81W north of 06N, moving 
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is from 06N to 08N between 81W and 83W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W from 04N to 15N, moving 
west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm 
of the wave axis.

A low pres area 1009 mb near 14N139W is along a tropical wave 
axis from 05N to 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is present from 09N to 15N W 
of 134W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 09N108W to 12N112W, 
then resumes southwest of Juliette from 15N119W to 11N129W to 
14N139W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
05N to 09N between 84W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 120 nm south of the trough axis between 122W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Hurricane Juliette is slowly moving away from the southern tip 
of Baja California, and tropical storm force sustained winds are 
no longer expected the far outer waters from Cabo San Lazaro to 
Cabo San Lucas. 12 ft seas will persist over the western portion 
of PMZ015 this morning. Swell from Juliette will build seas in 
the outer waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas today. 

A weak ridge north of Juliette will maintain light to gentle 
winds over the Baja California Norte waters the next few days. 
The ridge will strengthen late in the week, supporting moderate 
to fresh NW winds off the Baja California coast Fri and Sat. 
Looking ahead, fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds 
will prevail across the region into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are expected north of the monsoon trough, 
and gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the 
trough the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo Thu through Sun as a north-
south pressure gradient develops across Central America.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Juliette. Swell generated by Juliette will propagate 
outward over the next few days, resulting in a large area of 
seas greater than 8 ft around the storm from roughly 14N to 30N 
between 115W and 130W by Thu morning.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across forecast waters north 
of 20N and west of 120W. Scatterometer data showed moderate 
trade winds north of the monsoon trough, with the strongest 
winds noted east of the tropical wave around 139W. E of 115W, 
relatively tranquil conditions are observed with combined seas 
in the 4 to 6 foot range.

$$
Mundell