000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031525 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1525 UTC Tue Sep 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Juliette is centered near 18.4N 115.0W at 03/1500 UTC moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 30 nm N and 60 nm S semicircles. Elsewhere, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 112W and 117W. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Juliette could become a category 4 hurricane later today or early Wednesday. Steady weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and continue through Friday. Juliette is expected to continue moving toward the northwest through Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W north of 04N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N within 90 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 138W north of 05N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 132W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 09N95W to 08N100W to 09N105W, then resumes west of Juliette from 14N118W to 12N125W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 82W and 85W, within 180 nm north of the monsoon trough between 86W and 90W, and north of 11N between 99W and 104W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the far outer waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. Hurricane Juliette will continue moving NW across the far outer portion of the Baja California Sur offshore waters today. A Mexican Navy automated weather station located on Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 50 kt, and peak seas were analyzed to 35 ft near Clarion Island earlier this morning. Seas greater than 12 ft will persist over the western portion of PMZ015 through tonight as Juliette tracks NW toward the high seas. Swell from Juliette will propagate northward and build seas to 6-10 ft over the outer waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. A weak surface high pressure ridge north of Juliette will maintain light to gentle winds over the Baja California Norte waters for the next couple days. The ridge strengthens late in the week, supporting moderate to fresh NW flow off the Baja California coast Fri and Sat. Looking ahead, fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri and Sat. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the region into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight scatterometer data revealed gentle to moderate S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough, and light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough over the Central American waters. Gentle to moderate southerly flow will persist south of the trough for the next several days. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo Thu through Sat as a north-south pressure gradient develops across Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Juliette. Swell generated by Juliette will propagate outward over the next several days, resulting in a large area of seas greater than 8 ft surrounding the storm from roughly 15N to 30N between 117W and 130W by Thu morning. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the forecast waters generally north of 20N and west of 120W. Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh trade winds between the high pressure ridge and the monsoon trough, with the strongest winds noted east of the tropical wave around 138W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds were depicted south of the monsoon trough west of 125W. A recent 12 UTC altimeter pass detected seas to 8 ft in this region. No significant changes in wind and seas are expected over the next couple days. $$ Reinhart