000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030903 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Sep 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Juliette centered near 18.2N 114.5W at 03/0900 UTC moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 20N between 110W and 117W. Juliette will continue on a west-northwest course with little change in intensity during the next 24 hours before starting to weaken Wed. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 04N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 91W and 99W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 136W from 05N to 17N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 129W and 139W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N93W to 08N101W to 09N104W, then resumes west of Juliette near 14N117W to 12N125W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 78W and 85W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hurricane Juliette will pass across the far outer portion of the Baja California Sur offshore forecast waters over the next 12-24 hours. A Hurricane Warning in in effect for the far outer waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. Seas in excess of 30 ft are moving across the outer portions of PMZ015. Elsewhere, swell will propagate from Juliette, building seas to 6-10 ft over the waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro through Wed. A weak pressure gradient following the passage of Juliette will support light to gentle winds through Thu. Moderate NW winds will develop off the coast of Baja California Norte Thu and Fri as high pressure builds W of the area in the wake of Juliette. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Juliette. Swell generated by Juliette will propagate outward over the next several days, resulting in a large area of seas greater than 8 ft surrounding the storm from roughly 11N to 26N between 112W and 124W by Wed morning. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the forecast waters north of 20N west of 120W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trade winds between the ridge and the monsoon trough, with highest seas likely in the 7-8 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough W of 120W, with peak seas approaching 7-8 ft as well. $$ Mundell