000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022053 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1904 UTC Mon Sep 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Juliette centered near 17.2N 113.3W at 02/2100 UTC moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Juliette. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 21N between 107W and 115W. Juliette will continue on a west-northwest track while continuing to intensify over the next 24 to 36 hours before starting to weaken Wed. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W north of 05N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 88W and 93W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 135W from 04N to 18N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 127W and 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N81W to 09N87W to 08N96W TO 10N105W, it then resumes west of Juliette near 11N120W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted N of 05N E of 82W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 11N to 14N between 98W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 07N to 10N between 120W and 127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 135W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Hurricane Juliette is forecast to pass just outside of the Baja California offshore forecast waters over the next 24-36 hours. A Hurricane Warning in now in effect for the far outer waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. Seas will build in excess of 30 ft by tonight along the outer portions of PMZ015 as the center of Juliette passes near Clarion Island. Elsewhere, 8-12 ft seas will develop across PMZ015 as southerly swell from Juliette spreads across the region. This swell will propagate northward, building seas to 6-10 ft over the waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro through Wed. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient following the passage of Juliette will support light to gentle winds through mid week. Moderate NW winds will develop off the coast of Baja California Norte Thu into Fri as a high pressure ridge builds west of the area in the wake of Juliette. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse at night over the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue, with light to gentle winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Juliette. Swell generated by Juliette will propagate outward over the next several days, resulting in a large area of seas greater than 8 ft surrounding the storm from roughly 13N to 26N between 114W and 125W by Wed morning. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the forecast waters north of 20N west of 120W. Latest scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh trade winds between the ridge and the monsoon trough with peak seas likely in the 7-8 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough west of 120W, with peak seas approaching 7-8 ft as well. $$ AL