939 AXPZ20 KNHC 021522 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Mon Sep 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Juliette is centered near 16.7N 112.6W at 02/1500 UTC moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Recent satellite imagery and lightning data shows numerous moderate and scattered strong convection within 60 nm NE semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 14N to 19N between 108W and 115W. A west- northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast for the next several days. Strengthening is anticipated, and Juliette is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with further strengthening anticipated on Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 05N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N within 90 nm of wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 135W north of 04N, moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 128W and 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 10N83W to 07N95W to 11N108W, then resumes west of Juliette near 12N117W to 10N122W to 13N134W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 04N to 08N east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 97W and 103W, and from 07N to 11N between 121W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Juliette is forecast to pass just outside of the Baja California offshore forecast waters over the next 24-36 hours while strengthening into a hurricane. A Hurricane Warning in now in effect for the far outer waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. Seas will build in excess of 30 ft by tonight along the outer portions of PMZ015 as the center of Juliette passes near Clarion Island. Elsewhere, 8-12 ft seas will develop across PMZ015 as southerly swell from Juliette spreads across the region. This swell will propagate northward, building seas to 6-10 ft over the waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro through Wed. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient following the passage of Juliette will support light to gentle winds through mid week. Moderate NW winds will develop off the coast of Baja California Norte Thu into Fri as a high pressure ridge builds west of the area in the wake of Juliette. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish later today. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal gap winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Juliette. Swell generated by Juliette will propagate outward over the next several days, resulting in a large area of 8+ ft seas surrounding the storm from roughly 13N to 26N between 114W and 125W by Wed morning. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the forecast waters north of 20N west of 120W. Overnight scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh trade winds between the ridge and the monsoon trough with peak seas likely in the 7-8 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough west of 120W, with peak seas approaching 7-8 ft as well. $$ Reinhart