000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020935 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 710 UTC Mon Sep 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Juliette is centered near 16.2N 111.8W at 02/0900 UTC moving toward the NW or 300 degrees at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Satellite imagery indicates numerous moderate to strong convection within 75 nm of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 11N to 17N between 108W and 110.5W. Juliette is forecast to continue on a west-northwestward track with some decrease in forward speed through Wednesday. The current intensity forecast has Juliette reaching hurricane strength later today. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W N of 05N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 13N between 86W and 88W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 134W/135W from 04N to 16N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 130W and 136W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W to 08N90W to 11N104W, then it resumes W of T.S. Juliette near 11N119W to 12N132W to 10N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 08N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 95W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 11N between 12OW and 130W, and from 11N to 16N between 126W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The center of tropical cyclone Juliette is forecast to remain outside of the offshore forecast waters. However, tropical storm conditions as well as hurricane conditions are possible across the far outer offshore waters of forecast zone PMZ015, from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas, today through Tue night. Seas of 8 to 16 ft associated with Juliette are also expected to spread across the offshore forecast waters through Wed. A weak pressure gradient due to the passage of Juliette W of the region will allow for light to gentle variable winds elsewhere through Thu night. Moderate NW winds are forecast over Baja California Norte on Fri. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail in the Gulf of California over the next several days. Otherwise, nocturnal northerly drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong through early this morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Juliette. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the northern forecast waters N of 20N W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough will support moderate to locally fresh winds N of the monsoon trough to around 20N. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail across most of the region W of 120W today. Seas generated by Juliette will propagate across the waters W of 120W on Tue, covering most of the area N of 12N between 110W and 125W by Wed morning. $$ GR