821 AXPZ20 KNHC 012058 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1903 UTC Sun Sep 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Juliette centered near 14.9N 109.7W at 01/2100 UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm E and 60 nm W semicircles of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N to 19N between 104W and 113W. Juliette is forecast to continue on a west-northwestward to northwestward track the next few days while continuing to intensify. The current forecast has Juliette reaching hurricane strength Monday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W N of 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 05N to 10N between 83W and 90W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 132W from 02N to 16N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 131W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 08N93W to 10N100W, it then resumes near 11N115W to 12N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 08N to 13N between 96W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 10N between 113W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N to 15N between 120W and 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The center of tropical cyclone Juliette is forecast to remain outside of the offshore forecast waters. However, hurricane force winds may brush the far outer offshore waters of forecast zone PMZ015 on Mon night. Seas of 8 to 16 ft associated with Juliette are also expected to spread across the offshore forecast waters through Wed. A weak pressure gradient due to the passage of Juliette W of the region will allow for light to gentle variable winds elsewhere through Thu night. Moderate NW winds are forecast over Baja California Norte on Fri. Otherwise, nocturnal northerly drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong tonight into early Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected over Ecuador and Colombia offshore waters through Tue. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Juliette. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the northern forecast waters, N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough will support moderate to locally fresh winds N of the monsoon trough to around 20N. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail across most of the region W of 120W through Mon. $$ AL