000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Sep 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Juliette centered near 14.4N 108.8W at 01/1500 UTC moving NW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday and this general motion is forecast through Wednesday. Juliette is expected to become a hurricane tomorrow and continue to intensify on Tuesday. Weakening could begin on Wednesday. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm E semicircle of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm NW quadrant and elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 104W and 110W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 05N to 16N with axis near 130W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 126W and 137W. A tropical wave is from 04N to 15N with axis near 139W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 14N W of 136W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N82W to 08N95W to 09N100W, then resumes near 10N113W to 10N130W to 09N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves and T.S. Juliette, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10.5N between 93W and 100W, from 07N to 10N between 110W and 121W and from 10N to 19N between 122W and 130W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The center of tropical cyclone Juliette is forecast to remain outside of the offshore forecast waters. However, tropical storm force winds may brush the far outer offshore waters of forecast zone PMZ015 on Mon. Seas of 8 to 16 ft associated with Juliette are also expected to spread across the offshore forecast waters today through Wed. A weak pressure gradient due to the passage of Juliette W of the region will allow for light to gentle variable winds elsewhere through Thu night. Moderate NW winds are forecast over Baja California Norte on Fri. Otherwise, nocturnal northerly drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong tonight into early Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected over Ecuador and Colombia offshore waters today through Tue. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon trough while gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of it. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for details on Tropical Storm Juliette. Elsewhere, weak high pressure centered well NW of the area extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N W of 120W. A weak ridge will remain in place over this area during the next few days as Juliette moves parallel to the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the influence of the ridge, with moderate to locally fresh winds between the ridge and lower pressures near the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail across most of the region W of 120W through Mon, reaching 8 ft near the northern end of a tropical wave currently located along 130W. $$ Ramos