000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 730 UTC Sun Sep 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The low pressure previously located about several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is upgraded to Tropical Storm Juliette at 01/0900 UTC. At this time, Juliette is centered near 13.2N 107.6W moving NW or 310 degrees at 6 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday and continuing into Wednesday. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is expected to become a hurricane on Monday. An earlier scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of tropical storm force winds on the NE semicircle of the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm NE and 45 nm SW semicircles of center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 104W and 111W. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 128W from 04N to 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 125W and 130W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 138W from 04N to 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 130W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N90W to 12N106W to 09N120W to 11N128W to 09N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the tropical waves and T.S. Juliette, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 07N between 78W and 89W, including the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection is also seen from 07N to 10N between 94W and 98W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The center of tropical cyclone Juliette is forecast to remain outside of the offshore forecast waters. However, tropical storm force winds may brush the far outer offshore waters of forecast zone PMZ015, from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas, on Mon. Seas of 8 ft or greater associated with Juliette are also expected to spread across the offshore forecast waters during the next several days. Elsewhere, surface high pressure W of Baja California will support gentle to moderate NW winds N of Punta Eugenia through this morning. Nocturnal northerly drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong tonight into early Mon morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the special features section above for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Juliette. Elsewhere, weak high pressure of 1019 mb centered near 35N128W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N W of 120W. A weak ridge will remain in place over this area during the next few days as Juliette moves parallel to the western boundary of the offshore forecast waters. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the influence of the ridge, with moderate to locally fresh winds between the ridge and lower pressures near the monsoon trough. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will prevail across most of the region W of 120W through Mon, reaching 8 ft near the northern end of a tropical wave currently located along 128W. $$ GR