000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010232
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2320 UTC Sat Aug 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning: Low pres of 1008 mb centered near 12N107W will 
move NW the next few days. Winds over the northern semicircle of 
the low are expected to increase to gale force on Mon. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further
tropical development of this low, and there is currently a high 
probability that this low will develop into a tropical cyclone 
within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC tropical 
weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC or 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W from 04N to 17N, with 
low pres of 1008 mb along the wave near 12N107W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N 
between 100W and 110W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 126W from 04N to 17N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 12N to 18N between 123W and 130W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 137W from 04N to 17N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07N to 11N between 130W and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N93W to a 1008 mb 
low pressure near 12N107W to 08N115W to 10N127W to 08N135W to 
09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted 
from 04N to 08N between 81W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection was noted from 04N to 07N between 90W and 94W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Low pres, currently centered near 12N107W, will shift NW over 
the next few days, possibly developing into a tropical cyclone. 
Winds associated to this low will increase to near gale force 
across the offshore waters of SW Mexico and Baja California Sur 
Mon through Tue morning. Elsewhere, surface high pressure W of 
Baja California will support gentle to moderate NW winds N of 
Punta Eugenia through Sun morning. Nocturnal northerly drainage 
flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong at 
night through Mon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are 
expected N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds are expected S of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the special features section above for more on the 
potential for tropical cyclogenesis associated to the low 
centered near 12N107W. 

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 28N138W. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the 
monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds between the 
monsoon trough and 20N, and west of 120W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft 
prevail across most of the region, reaching 8 ft from 09N to 12N
between 137W and 140W. 

$$
AL