000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312031
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1829 UTC Sat Aug 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale warning: Low pres of 1009 mb centered near 11.5N106W will 
move NW the next few days. Winds over the northern semicircle of 
the low are expected to increase to gale force by Mon afternoon. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further
tropical development of this low, and there is currently a high 
probability that this low will develop into a tropical cyclone 
within the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC tropical 
weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC or 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W from 04N to 17N, with
low pres of 1009 mb along the wave near 11.5N106W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N 
between 99W and 108W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 125W from 04N to 17N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 13N to 18N between 122W and 129W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 136W from 04N to 17N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 07N to 11N between 132W and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 09N96W to a 
1009 mb low pressure near 11.5N106W to 09N110W to 09N117W to 
09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted
from 03N to 06N E of 83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection was noted from 05N to 09N between 83W and 96W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Low pres, currently centered near 11.5N106W, will shift NW over 
the next few days, possibly developing into a tropical cyclone. 
Winds associated to this low will increase to gale force across 
the offshore waters of SW Mexico and Baja California Sur Mon 
through Tue morning. Elsewhere, surface high pressure W of Baja 
California will support gentle to moderate NW winds N of Punta 
Eugenia through Sun morning. Nocturnal northerly drainage flow in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong at night 
through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are 
expected N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly 
winds are expected S of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the special features section above for more on the 
potential for tropical cyclogenesis associated to the low 
centered near 11.5N106W. 

Elsewhere, high pressure of 1021 mb is centered near 28N137W. 
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the 
monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds between the 
monsoon trough and 20N, and west of 120W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft 
prevail across most of the region, reaching 8 ft from 09N to 15N 
between 136W and 140W. The high is forecast to weaken this 
weekend.

$$
AL