000 AXPZ20 KNHC 311605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave and a low centered near 11N104W is generating scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 07N to 16N between 98W and 108W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form early next week while the system moves west- northwestward. There is a high chance this system may become a tropical cyclone within the next 3 to 5 days. See the latest NHC tropical weather outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 07N to 17N with axis along 124W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 17N between 122W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 12N101W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 11N104W to 09N110W to 08N120W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 08N east of 83W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 11N between 85W and 90W, and from 06N to 11N W of 131W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough will persist in the Gulf of California through the middle of next week, with moderate to fresh SE winds this weekend becoming light and variable the remainder of the week. Surface high pressure W of Baja California will support gentle to moderate NW winds N of Punta Eugenia through Sun morning. Light to gentle winds will dominate the waters N of 22N the remainder period. The area of low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section is expected to move northwest outside of the area through Thu, however fresh to near gale force winds and building seas associated with it will reach the waters SW of Mexico and SW of Baja California Sun through Tue night. Nocturnal northerly drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh at night through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure centered NW of the area continues to support moderate to fresh winds between the monsoon trough/ITCZ and 20N. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across most of the region. The high is forecast to weaken this weekend, while a weak cold front stalls near 30N140W. There is the potential for tropical cyclogenesis early next week associated with the tropical wave currently near 104W. See the Special Features section above. $$ Ramos