000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310906
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W from 04N to 15N, moving 
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 06N to 14N between 99W and 110W. This wave will be 
monitored for possible tropical cyclogenesis this weekend, as 
environmental conditions become more favorable. There is a high 
chance this system may become a tropical cyclone within the next 
3 to 5 days.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W from 05N to 16N, moving 
W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 14N to 16N between 118W and 125W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 12N105W to 10N111W to 
12N123W to 10N129W. The ITCZ extends from 10N129W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N 
to 08N between 77W and 83W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough will persist in the Gulf of California through 
the middle of next week, with moderate to fresh SE winds this 
weekend becoming light and variable the remainder of the week. 
Surface high pressure W of Baja California will support gentle 
to moderate NW winds N of Punta Eugenia. Nocturnal northerly 
drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh at 
night through Mon. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon trough, and 
gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the trough. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure centered near 28N138W continues to support 
moderate to fresh winds between the monsoon trough/ITCZ and 20N. 
Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across most of the region.

The high is forecast to linger and weaken this weekend, while a 
weak cold front stalls near 30N140W. There is the potential for 
tropical cyclogenesis early next associated with the tropical 
wave currently near 106W.

$$
Mundell