000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300140 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 103W, N of 04N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 15N110W to 15N100W to 06N100W to 06N110W to 15N110W. A tropical wave is along 115W, from 05N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 16N119W to 14N110W to 07N110W to 12N119W to 16N119W. A tropical wave is along 123W, from 02N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 14N119W to 07N119W to 07N125W to 10N125W to 14N119W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N78W to 08N90W to 12N113W to 09N132W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 09N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 16N98W to 13N97W to 08N85W to 03N88W to 08N98W to 15N100W to 16N98W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough persists across Baja California Norte and is maintaining gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Gulf of California. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less. Little change in marine conditions is expected during the forecast period in the Gulf of California, except occasional shifting winds to the NW in the southern portion including the entrance. Across the offshore waters of Baja, a broad ridge continues from well W of the area through 28N120W to 20N110W. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the waters, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft across this area. These conditions will persist through the forecast period. Farther south, nocturnal northerly drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong through early next week. Seas will increase to 6 to 8 ft at the peak of these winds each early morning. Offshore WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will gradually diminish this evening through early Fri. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in this area will subside to 4 to 6 ft by this weekend. Elsewhere light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure at 1020 mb is centered near 28N130W. Earlier scatterometer data showed mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds to the north of 20N, with moderate trade winds farther south closer to the monsoon trough. Earlier altimeter data showed seas of 5 to 7 ft south of the monsoon trough, likely with a component of long period southerly swell, with 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. The high is forecast to linger through the end of the week, weakening this weekend as a weak cold front stalls in the vicinity of 30N140W. Model guidance indicates some potential for weak low pressure to develop this weekend into early next week along a tropical wave as it moves through the west central waters. Otherwise, little change in marine conditions across the tradewind belt is expected through this time period. $$ Lewitsky