000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292123 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Aug 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 101W, N of 04N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 15N109W to 15N97W to 05N97W to 05N109W. A tropical wave is along 114W, from 05N to 18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 16N115W to 16N97W to 07N109W to 10N115W to 16N115W. A tropical wave is along 122W, from 03N to 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 13N117W to 05N117W to 08N130W to 13N117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 09N78W to 08N90W to 10N100W to 12N114W to 10N129W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 10N129W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 13N97W to 11N86W to 08N78W to 05N85W to 07N95W to 10N97W to 13N97W, and also within 10N140W to 10N130W to 06N130W to 06N140W to 10N140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough persists across Baja California Norte and is maintaining gentle to moderate southerly winds across the Gulf of California. Seas are mainly 3 ft or less, except up to 4 ft in the northern Gulf due to earlier fresh winds. Little change in marine conditions is expected during the forecast period in the Gulf of California, except occasional shifting winds to the NW in the southern portion including the entrance. Across the offshore waters of Baja, a broad ridge continues from well W of the area through 28N120W to 20N110W. Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the waters, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft across this area. These conditions will persist through the forecast period. Farther south, nocturnal northerly drainage flow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to fresh to strong through early next week. Seas will increase to 6 to 8 ft at the peak of these winds each early morning. Offshore WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will gradually diminish this evening through early Fri. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in this area will subside to 4 to 6 ft by this weekend. Elsewhere light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure at 1021 mb is centered near 28N130W. Recent scatterometer data showed mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds to the north of 20N, with moderate trade winds farther south closer to the monsoon trough. Altimeter data showed seas of 5 to 7 ft south of the monsoon trough, likely with a component of long period southerly swell, with 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. The high is forecast to linger through the end of the week, weakening this weekend as a weak cold front stalls in the vicinity of 30N140W. Model guidance indicates the potential for weak low pressure to develop this weekend into early next week along a tropical wave as it moves through the west central waters. Otherwise, little change in marine conditions across the tradewind belt is expected through this time period. $$ Lewitsky