000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291602 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1601 UTC Thu Aug 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W/98W, N of 05N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated convection described below extends north to Mexican coast and inland across Chiapas. A tropical wave is along 1112W, from 06N to 17N, moving W at 10- 15 kt. Associated convection described below. A tropical wave is along 120W/121W, from 04N to 16N, moving W near 15 kt. Associated convection described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 12N115W to 12N123W. The intertropical convergence from 12N123W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 08N to 10N between 85W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection from 07N to 14N between 95W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough persists across Baja California Norte and is maintaining fresh southerly winds across the north and central portions of the Gulf of California. Seas there are assumed to be 3-5 ft. Winds and seas will diminish across this area of the Gulf today, while moderate NW winds prevail across southern portions of the Gulf of California. Across the offshore waters of Baja, a broad ridge continues from well W of the area to 1010 mb low pressure near 19N119W. Moderate NW winds prevail across the waters of Baja California Norte to 25N and extend well offshore. Seas are around 4 to 5 ft across this area. The low pressure and attendant trough will gradually dissipate during the next 24 hours and allow the ridge to build to beyond 20N110W, bringing moderate winds to all the waters of the peninsula through the weekend. Seas off Baja California will remain 4 to 6 ft with mixed long period S to SW swell. Farther south, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the period, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will increase to 6 to 8 ft at the peak of these winds each early morning. Active convection associated with passing tropical waves will impact the offshore waters of southwest Mexico through late Friday, from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to western Guerrero. Offshore WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Showers and thunderstorms continue to form along roughly 10N off the Nicoya peninsula of Costa Rica, just north of the monsoon trough axis. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with a component of southerly swell. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will gradually diminish through early Fri. Elsewhere light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad 1019 mb high pressure is centered near 28N130W. Earlier scatterometer data showed mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds to the north of 20N, with moderate trade winds farther south closer to the monsoon trough. Overnight altimeter data showed seas of 5 to 7 ft south of the monsoon trough, likely with a component of long period southerly swell but 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. The high is forecast to linger through the end of the week while strengthening slightly to 1022 mb by late Fri, then weakening again this weekend as a weak cold front stalls in the vicinity of 30N140W. Little change in marine conditions across the tradewind belt is expected through this time period. $$ Christensen