000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290921 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W/97W, N of 05N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated convection described below extends north to Mexican coast and inland across Chiapas. A tropical wave is along 108W, from 04N to 16N, moving W at 10- 15 kt. Associated convection described below. A tropical wave is along 119W/120W, from 03N to 16N, moving W near 15 kt. Associated convection described below. A tropical wave is along 137W/138W, from 02N to 13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated convection described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N73W TO 08.5N84W TO 11N107W TO 10.5N124W TO 08.5N136W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 10.5N between 82W and 87W, from 06N to 14.5N between 89W and 112W, and within 120 nm N and 150 nm S of the trough between 114W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough persists across Baja California Norte and is maintaining fresh southerly winds across the north and central portions of the Gulf of California. Seas there are assumed to be 3-5 ft. Winds and seas will diminish across this area of the Gulf today, while moderate NW winds prevail across southern portions. Across the offshore waters of Baja, a broad ridge continues from well W of the area to a weak surface trough that extends from just offshore of Cabo San Lazaro to 19N117W. Moderate NNW winds prevail across the waters of Baja California Norte to 25N and extend well offshore. Seas are around 4 ft across this area. The trough will gradually dissipate during the next 24 hours and allow the ridge to build to beyond 20N110W, bringing moderate winds to all the waters of the peninsula through the weekend. Seas off Baja California will remain 4 to 6 ft with mixed long period S to SW swell. Farther south, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the period, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will increase to 6 to 8 ft at the peak of these winds each early morning. Active convection associated with passing tropical waves will impact the offshore waters of southwest Mexico through late Friday, from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to western Guerrero. Offshore WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Very active convection continues to shift westward across the tropical waters of Costa Rica between 82W and 87W and will continue westward and pass south of the Papagayo region this morning. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong tonight into early Fri, with weaker winds thereafter. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough. No significant southerly swell is anticipated through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 28N129W. Overnight scatterometer data showed mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds to the S of 23N, and N of the monsoon trough, generally west of 120W. Overnight altimeter data showed seas of 4 to 6 ft S of the ridge, except for an area of 5 to 7 ft near and S of the monsoon trough between 102W and 110W. These slightly higher seas are likely due to enhance southerly winds ahead of and near a tropical wave, as well as a component of long period southerly swell. The high is forecast to linger through the end of the week while strengthening slightly to 1022 mb by Fri evening, then weakening again this weekend as a weak cold front stalls in the vicinity of 30N140W. Little change in marine conditions across the tradewind belt is expected through this time period. $$ Stripling