000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290218 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W/96W, N of 05N to near the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 92W and 97W, from 11N to 13N between 95W and 99W, and also within 60 nm of the coast of Mexico between 92W and 95W. A tropical wave is along 107W, from 04N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 103W and 114W. A tropical wave is along 119W, from 03N to 16N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 115W and 122W. A tropical wave is along 137W/138W, from 02N to 13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 136W and 140W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northern Colombia near 09N74W to 07N81W to 11N105W to 10N120W to 08N134W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 78W and 84W, from 04N to 08N between 85W and 92W, from 07N to 10N between 98W and 101W, from 10N to 13N between 99W and 103W, from 08N to 11N between 122W and 130W, and from 07N to 09N between 128W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In the northern Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong southerly winds are ongoing, between ridging across the area anchored by a 1017 mb high pressure area centered W of the area, and a relatively deep low pressure over southern Nevada. These winds will persist through tonight, then diminish as the low weakens by early Thu. Elsewhere N of 20N, the ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds. Seas off Baja California will remain 4 to 6 ft with a component of long period S to SW swell. Farther south, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the period, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will increase to 6 to 8 ft at the peak of these winds each early morning. Offshore WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A large area of showers and thunderstorms persists from near the Gulf of Panama moving westward along western Panama and across Costa Rica. Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to fresh to strong tonight into early Thu, with weaker winds thereafter. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough. No significant southerly swell is anticipated through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 27N129W. Earlier scatterometer data showed mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds to the S of the ridge, N of the monsoon trough. Earlier altimeter data showed seas of 4 to 7 ft S of the ridge, except for an area of 5 to 8 ft S of the monsoon trough from 05N to 10N between 100W and 110W. These slightly higher seas are likely due to enhance southerly winds ahead of and near a tropical wave, as well as a component of long period southerly swell. The high is forecast to linger through the end of the week while strengthening slightly to 1022 mb by Fri evening, then weakening again this weekend as a weak cold front stalls in the vicinity of 30N140W. Little change in marine conditions is expected through this time period. $$ Lewitsky