000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Aug 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W/90W, N of 05N to across Central America, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm west of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 104W/105W, from 05N to 15N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 101W to 108W. A tropical wave is along 134W, from 05N to 15N, moving W at 10- 15 kt. No significant convection is noted. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N130W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 03N and east of 81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 82W and 88W, and within 240 nm north of the axis between 90W and 105W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A disturbance in the mid levels of the atmosphere moved off the higher terrain of Sinaloa last night into the southern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong winds over the southern Gulf of California associated with the residual thunderstorms moving west are active currently across the area, but will diminish into the afternoon. Over the northern Gulf of California, moderate to fresh southerly winds are ongoing, between ridging across the area anchored by a 1017 mb high pressure area centered west of the area near 25N128W, and a relatively deep 1004 mb low centered over the lower Colorado River valley. These winds will persist through mid week then diminish as the low weakens. Elsewhere north of 20N, the ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds. Seas off Baja California will remain 4 to 6 ft with a component of SW to W swell. Farther south, high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will support pulses of fresh to strong gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the period, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Seas will increase to 6 to 8 ft at the peak of these winds each early morning. Offshore WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A large area of showers and thunderstorms persists over the Gulf of Panama and off the Pacific coast of Colombia. Elsewhere fresh to strong NE to E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish this afternoon, then pulse again to fresh to strong tonight into early Thu, with weaker winds thereafter. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough. No significant southerly swell is anticipated through the remainder of the week and the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 25N128W. Earlier scatterometer data showed mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds to the south of the ridge, north of the monsoon trough. Recent altimeter data showed seas of 4 to 6 ft south of the ridge, except for an area of 5 to 8 ft south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 10N between 100W and 110W. This was likely due to enhance southerly winds ahead of an approaching tropical wave, as well as a component of longer period southerly swell. A few short lived showers and thunderstorms are noted along the monsoon trough, but otherwise no convection is noted west of 110W. The high is forecast to linger through the end of the week while strengthening slightly to 1022 mb by Fri afternoon, then weakening again this weekend. Little change in marine conditions is expected through this time period. $$ Christensen