000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W, from 20N southward, moving west 10 to 15 knots. The wave passes through eastern sections of Honduras, through Nicaragua, to Costa Rica. A tropical wave is along 99W, from 17N southward, moving west 15 knots. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 90W and 104W, A tropical wave is along 127W/128W, from 15N southward, moving west 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 124W and 128W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through Panama near 08N78W, to 07N87W, to 10N101W, 08N108W, to 11N120W. The ITCZ continues from 11N120W to 11N123W 10N126W 05N134W and 04N140W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 93W and 95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 94W eastward, within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 108W and 124W, within 60 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 124W and 128W, and within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 129W and 136W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 90W and 104W, and within 330 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 110W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The latest satellite imagery shows that the remnant low pressure center of Ivo is near 24.7N116W, estimated at 1011 mb. The recent scatterometer and altimeter data across the surrounding area suggest that the wind speeds have diminished to less than 20 knots, and the sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet across the W and SW quadrants of this low center. The system is expected to drift eastward and dissipate today. A ridge will rebuild across the offshore waters of Baja California, as the remnant low of Ivo dissipates. This will bring the typical NW to N wind flow across the region. The broad area of low pressure, that has been near Las Tres Marias Islands, continues to be weak. A weak trough extends from near Manzanillo SSW across the offshore waters. A supporting middle to upper level trough extends from the Texas coastal waters SW across northern Mexico. Warming cloud top temperatures, and possibly lingering precipitation, cover Mexico from 17N to 20N between 99W and 104W. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California through at least mid-week. Fresh to strong SE winds will enter the southern Gulf of California by Tuesday night, and shift into the northern Gulf on Wednesday and Wednesday night, becoming fresh and 20 knots or less, by Thursday morning. Gulf of Tehuantepec: increasing northerly winds are expected by Wednesday night into Thursday, as a ridge builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. The marine guidance for that time period suggests N winds of 20-25 kt and building seas to 7-8 ft. Offshore WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed morning when winds will increase to strong speeds with building seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds will then prevail through Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough along with additional pulses of cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Active precipitation will continue with the tropical wave along 127W/128W as it shifts westward during the next couple of days. Expect areas of NE winds around 20 kt and seas building to 6-8 ft with and just ahead of this wave through this afternoon. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the remainder forecast waters N of 18N W of 120W where light to gentle winds will prevail. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity the monsoon trough/ITCZ will support moderate NE to E winds. $$ MT