000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270928 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Aug 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W N of 04N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 06N to 13N between 92W and 99W. A tropical wave is along 127W from 04N to 15N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06 to 11.5N between 124W and 131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1006 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08N94W TO 09N107W TO 11N119W TO 06N132W, then resumes from near 16N133W to 15.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N E of 94W, and within 90 nm N and 180 nm S of the trough between 117W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest overnight satellite imagery showed the remnant low of Ivo centered near 25.5N117W, estimated at 1011 mb. Recent scatterometer and altimeter data across the surrounding area suggest that winds have diminished below 20 kt and seas are now 5-7 ft across the W and SW quadrants of this low. This system is expected to drift eastward and dissipate today. As the remnant low of Ivo dissipates, a ridge will build back across the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing the typical NW to N wind flow across the region. The broad area of low pressure located just W of Las Tres Marias Islands has weakened and a weak trough is analyzed from near Manzanillo SSW across the offshore waters. A supporting middle to upper level trough from the Texas coastal waters SW across northern Mexico is again supporting nocturnal convection across north central Mexico extending to the coast and to within 120 nm of the coast between Acapulco and Mazatlan, where scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues. This convection will continue a few more hours while diminishing into the morning. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California through at least mid-week. By Tue night into Wed, southerly winds may briefly increase to 20 kt over the southern Gulf of California and shift into the northern Gulf through Wednesday evening. Looking ahead, increasing northerly winds are also expected over the Tehunatepec region by Wed night into Thu, as a ridge builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine guidance suggests N winds of 20-25 kt and building seas to 7-8 ft. Offshore WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed morning when winds will increase to strong speeds with building seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds will then prevail through Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough along with additional pulses of cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Active convection will continue with the tropical wave along 127W as it shifts westward over the next couple of days. Expect areas of NE winds around 20 kt and seas building to 6-8 ft with and just ahead of this wave through this afternoon. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the remainder forecast waters N of 18N W of 120W where light to gentle winds will prevail. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity the monsoon trough/ITCZ will support moderate Ne to E winds. $$ Stripling