000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270223 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 044 UTC Tue Aug 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W N of 04N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is generating scattered moderate isolated strong convection over parts of SE Mexico and western Guatemala. Scattered moderate convection is also noted on either side of the wave axis from 06N to 12N between 90W and 100w. A tropical wave is along 125W from 04N to 15N, moving W at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 08 to 11N between 123W and 128W, and from 11N to 12N between 118W and 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1006 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia across Panama and Costa Rica to 09N90W to 10N100W to 09N110W to 11N116W to 07N126W to beyond 14N140W. Outside of the convection associated with the waves, no deep convection is noted. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest visible satellite imagery showed a well defined swirl of low clouds associated with the remnant low of Ivo centered near 26N117.5W. A ship observation located within about 150 nm SW of the low indicated NW winds of 20 kt and seas to 10 ft. This system is expected to drift eastward and slowly spin down over the cooler waters offshore of central Baja California, and dissipate on Tue. As the remnant low of Ivo dissipates, a ridge will build back across the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing the typical NW to N wind flow across the region. The broad area of low pressure located just W of Las Tres Marias Islands has weakened and a trough is analyzed across this region. Only isolated moderate convection is noted. Latest scatterometer data showed a small area of fresh to locally strong NW winds near Cabo San Lucas. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California through at least mid-week. By Tue night into Wed, winds may briefly increase to 20 kt over the southern Gulf of California. Looking ahead, increasing northerly winds are also expected over the Tehunatepec region by Wed night into Thu, as a ridge builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Currently, marine guidance suggests N winds of 20-25 kt and building seas to 8 ft. Offshore WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed morning when winds will increase to strong speeds with building seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds will then prevail through Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are expected N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough along with additional pulses of cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Active convection will continue with the tropical wave along 125W as it shifts westward over the next couple of days. Expect areas of NE winds around 20 kt and seas building to 6-8 ft with and just ahead of this wave through Tue morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the remainder forecast waters N of 18N W of 120W where light to gentle winds will prevail. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity the monsoon trough/ITCZ will support moderate Ne to E winds. $$ GR