000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262149 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2012 UTC Mon Aug 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W N of 04N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is generating isolated to scattered moderate convection over the states of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is also noted on either side of the wave axis from 08N to 12N between 90W and 99W. A tropical wave is along 123W from 04N to 15N, moving W at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 121W and 128W, and from 10N to 12N between 117W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from from 09.5N84W to 09N94W to 10N102W to 09N110W to 11N116W to 07N126W to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 88W and 92W, near 09N98W, and from 06N to 09N between 102W and 108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Visible satellite imagery shows a well defined swirl of low clouds associated with the remnant low of Ivo centered near 26N118W. A ship observation located within about 150 nm SE of Ivo's center indicates winds of 20 kt and seas to 8 ft. This remnant low is expected to drift eastward and slowly spin down over the cooler waters offshore of central Baja California, and dissipate on Tue. As the remnant low of Ivo dissipates, a ridge will build back across the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing the typical NW to N wind flow across the region. The broad area of low pressure located W of Las Tres Marias Islands has weakened and a trough is analyzed across this area at 1800 UTC. Convection, associated with this low has also diminished. Latest scatterometer data showed a small area of fresh to locally strong NW winds near Cabo San Lucas. A surface trough will meander between Baja California and the Gulf of California or Sea of Cortez through at least mid-week. By Tue night into Wed, winds may briefly increase to 20-25 kt near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Looking ahead, increasing northerly winds are also expected over the Tehunatepec region by Wed night into Thu, as a ridge builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Offshore WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed morning when winds will increase to strong speeds with building seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds will then prevail through Thu. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate S to SW winds S of the monsoon trough along with additional pulses of cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Active convection will continue with and ahead of the tropical wave along 123W as it shifts westward over the next couple of days. Expect areas of NE winds around 20 kt and seas building to 6-8 ft with and just ahead of this wave through Tue morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the remainder forecast waters N of 18N W of 120W where light to gentle winds will prevail. Moderate NE to E winds are forecast through Fri between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ. $$ GR