000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W/92W from 16N in Guatemala southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Monsoon trough-related precipitation is to the east of the wave. A tropical wave is along 119W/120W from 15N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 07N to 09N between 122W and 126W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 250 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 114W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through Costa Rica is along 09N/10N from 85W to 120W, 07N125W 14N137W, and beyond 14N140W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 270 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 107W eastward, and within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from 110W eastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Post-Tropical remnant low Ivo is a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 26N118W at 26/1200 UTC, drifting N 2 knots. The maximum sustained wind speeds continue to diminish slowly, and now are 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. The remnant low is expected to drift eastward today, and spin down slowly in the cooler waters offshore of central Baja California, and dissipate on Tuesday. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm across the W semicircle of this low center. Southwesterly swell will continue to fade across the offshore waters of central and southern parts of Baja California today, but still will give moderate to large and dangerous surf. The wind speeds and the sea heights will improve considerably tonight through Tuesday, as the remnants dissipate and shift SE, and typical NNW wind flow builds across the regional waters again by late Tuesday. A broad area of low pressure developing near Las Tres Marias Islands is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds from just offshore of Cabo San Lucas to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. This broad low shifted southward overnight, and it extends to offshore of Manzanillo. A middle to upper level trough, extending from SE Texas SW across northern Mexico, reaches the Las Tres Marias area. It combined overnight with the surface low pressure, in order to produce a large cluster of numerous strong rainshowers, from 21N to 25N between 105W and 110W. NOW: A surface trough passes through 32N115W, into the Gulf of California near 25N110W, to 18N106W. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 22N to 24N between 107W and 110W. The cloud top temperatures have been warming with time, and the precipitation has been diminishing. Convective debris clouds and possibly lingering rainshowers continue from 17N to 26N between 105W and 112W. Expect fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of California, starting on Tuesday night and ending on Thursday morning. The fresh to strong SE winds will start in the southern sections of the Gulf of California, and they will spread northward with time. The comparatively faster wind speeds will be observed in the northernmost parts of the Gulf, from 29.5N northward, from Wednesday afternoon and ending on Thursday morning. 10N85W, and it continues along 09N/10N from 85W to 120W, 07N125W 14N137W, and beyond 14N140W.OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wednesday morning, when the wind speeds will increase to strong with building seas. Fresh to strong winds then will prevail through Thursday. Expect light to moderate mainly offshore wind flow elsewhere, N of 10 N through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly winds will dominate the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through Friday, along with small to moderate long period cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Active convection will continue with and ahead of the tropical wave along 119W/120W, as it shifts westward through Tuesday. Expect areas of NE winds around 20 knots, and seas building to 6 to 8 feet, with and just ahead of this wave through Tuesday morning. Otherwise: weak high pressure will dominate the remainder forecast waters N of 15N W of 120W, where light to gentle variable winds will dominate. Moderate NE to E winds are forecast through Friday, between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ. $$ mt