000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260957 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0815 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave exiting Central America along 90W is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring ahead of the wave from 13N to the coast between 91.5W and 95.5W. This convection will continue to shift W across the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the next several hours. A tropical wave along 119W from 03N to 15N is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring in a spiral band from 04.5N to 13N between 117W and 124W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 10N87W TO 08N103W TO 10.5N114W TO 07N121W TO 14.5N137W to beyond 14N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm N and 240 nm S of the trough east of 106W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Post-Tropical remnant low Ivo is centered near 26N118W at 0600 UTC drifting N at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds continue to slowly diminish and are now 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. This remnant low is expected to drift eastward today and slowly spin down over the cooler waters offshore of central Baja California, and dissipate on Tue. Scattered showers continue within 120 nm across the W semicircle of this low. Southwesterly swell will continue to fade across the offshore waters of central and southern portions of Baja California today, but will still moderate to large and dangerous surf. Wind and seas will improve considerably tonight through Tue as the remnants dissipate and shift SE, and typical NNW wind flow builds back across the regional waters by late Tue. A broad area of low pressure developing near Las Tres Marias Islands is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds from just offshore of Cabo San Lucas to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. This broad low has shifted southward overnight and extends to offshore of Manzanillo. A middle to upper level trough extending from SE Texas SW across northern Mexico reaches the Las Tres Marias area and has combined overnight with the surface low pressure to produce a large cluster of strong convection shifting northward within 120 nm of the coast of Nayarit and into southern Sinaloa. Expect strong gusty winds and occasional lightning with this convection as it continues to move northward into the entrance of the Gulf of California during the next few hours. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed morning when winds will increase to strong speeds with building seas. Fresh to strong winds will then prevail through Thu. Otherwise, light to moderate mainly offshore wind flow is expected N of 10 N through Tue. Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly winds will dominate the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through Fri along with small to moderate long period cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Active convection will continue with and ahead of the tropical wave along 119W as it shifts westward through Tue. Expect areas of NE winds around 20 kt and seas building to 6-8 ft with and just ahead of this wave through Tue morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the remainder forecast waters N of 15N W of 120W where light to gentle variable winds will dominate. Moderate NE to E winds are forecast through Fri between the ridge and the monsoon trough/ITCZ. $$ Stripling