000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250240 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Tropical Storm Ivo centered near 23.4N 116.6W at 25/0300 UTC moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or Sunday and degenerate into a remnant low Sunday night. Convection has reduced in the last couple of hours as the system moves over colder waters. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 26.5N between 113W and 119W. Seas to 13 ft between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia will subside Sun evening as Ivo weakens before dissipating over the outer northern forecast waters on Tue. Moderate to long period SW swell will continue to reach the coast of Baja California through Sun night may generate large and dangerous surf across the area. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 04N to 17N with axis along 111W, moving W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 108W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to 08N103W to 07N108W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Ivo near 16N120W to low pressure near 11.5N131W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 04N E of 86W, and from 09N to 13.5N W of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo across the offshore waters of Baja California. Hazardous wind and wave conditions, including moderate to large south to southwest swell will continue between the coast of Baja California and Ivo through Sun as the storm moves NW across the outer offshore waters. Dangerous surf conditions will prevail til then. Moderate to fresh SE winds in the central and northern Gulf of California will diminish Sun. A broad area of low pressure will develop near Las Tres Marias Islands on Sun, supporting moderate to fresh NW winds at the entrance and southern Gulf of California through Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave crossing Central America tonight through Sunday will continue to produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection N of 02N E of 90W over the next few days. Locally higher winds and waves can be expected with this activity. Moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate south to southwesterly winds will dominate the offshore waters of Colombia, Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through Thu along with long period cross-equatorial SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak low pressure of 1011 mb near 11.5N131W is forecast to open into a tropical wave Sun as it moves westward before crossing 140W on Monday. Scattered moderate convection associated with the low is from 08N to 12N between 130W and 135W. High pressure located just NW of the discussion area maintains a broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 18N and west of 124W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the influence of the ridge over the next couple days while the high pressure slowly moves westward. Seas of 8 to 10 ft associated with Ivo will impact the forecast waters from 18N to 27N between 115W and 119W. The aerial extent of these high seas will shrink as Ivo weakens over the next couple of days. $$ Ramos