000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242201
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Aug 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 22.3N 116.5W at 2100 UTC, 
moving NNW at 7 kt, and this motion is expected to continue 
through Sunday night. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 
mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Ivo 
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or Sunday 
and degenerate into a remnant low Sunday night. Although the 
storm continues to move over decreasing sea surface 
temperatures, Ivo continues to produce deep convection in a band 
over the southern semicircle from 20N to 22N between 115W and 
118W. Seas of 8 to 11 ft between Cabo San Lucas and Punta 
Eugenia will subside Sun evening as Ivo weakens and moves 
farther away. Moderate to long period SW swell continue to reach 
the coast of Baja California as well as the east side of the 
southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. This swell combined with 
high astronomical tides will generate large and dangerous surf 
across the areas through Sun. See the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC 
for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is from 04N to 16N with axis along 110W, moving 
W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 12N between 108W and 112W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N90W to 07N108W, 
then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Ivo near 14N122W to low 
pressure near 11.5N132W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is N of 3.5N E of 86W, and from 10N to 13N W of 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about 
Tropical Storm Ivo across the offshore waters of Baja 
California. Hazardous wind and wave conditions, including large 
south to southwest swell, will continue between the coast of 
Mexico and Ivo through Sun as the storm passes across the far 
outer offshore waters. Dangerous surf conditions will prevail 
til then.

Fresh to strong southern winds prevail from 27N to 29N in the 
Gulf of California, however will diminish to moderate to fresh 
this evening. SW swell from Ivo will continue to enter the 
entrance of the Gulf and maintain local seas of 5-8 ft through 
tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave will cross Central America tonight through
Sunday, producing numerous moderate to strong convection east of
95W over the next few days. Locally higher winds and waves can be
expected with this activity.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient across the region will 
result in mainly gentle to moderate winds for the next several 
days. Long period, cross-equatorial SW swell continues to impact 
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of
5 to 6 ft. Seas will gradually subside through Sun. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak low pressure of 1011 mb is near 11.5N132W. This low will 
likely not be long lived, and is forecast to open into a 
tropical wave as it moves westward Sunday, passing west of 140W 
on Monday. Scattered moderate convection associated with the 
low is from 10N to 12.5N between 130W and 134W.

High pressure located just NW of the discussion area maintains a
broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 16N and west of 
124W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the 
influence of the ridge over the next couple days while the high 
pressure slowly moves westward. Elsewhere, a broad area of 
moderate to fresh SW to W winds persists south of Ivo and the 
monsoon trough and extends roughly between 115W and 135W. Seas of
8 ft or greater associated with Ivo cover the forecast waters 
from 17N to 26N between 110W and 119W. The aerial extent of 
these high seas will shrink as Ivo weakens over the next couple 
of days. 

$$
Ramos