000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241454
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1450 UTC Sat Aug 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 21.8N 116.4W at 1500 UTC,
moving NNW at 8 kt, and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central
pressure has risen to 1000 mb. Maximum sustained winds have
weakened to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Weakening is expected to
continue, and Ivo is forecast to become a tropical depression early
Sunday morning near 24.6N 117.1W. By early Sunday evening, Ivo
should degenerate into a remnant low near 26.0N 118.2W. The
tropical storm remain a small and tight low level circulation in
satellite imagery, and convection has recently flared up with 
about 150 nm of the center in all quadrants. The forecast track 
above takes Ivo along the western boundary of Baja California 
waters this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in 
effect from Cabo San Lucas to Punta Eugenia. Seas of 8 to 11 ft 
between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes will subside this afternoon
as Ivo weakens and moves farther away. Moderate to long period 
SW swell is beginning to reach the coast of Baja California as 
well as on the east side of the southern tip of the Baja 
Peninsula. This swell combined with high astronomical tides will 
generate large and dangerous surf across the areas through at 
least tonight, with a risk of coastal flooding as well. See the 
latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 109W, north of 05N, moving W near 10 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N
to 13N between 104W and 110W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N78W to 08N87W to 09N106W, then
resumes west of T.S. Ivo from 15N120W to low pressure near
12N132W to 14N140W. Numerous strong convection is noted from 03N
to 10N east of 84W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
150 nm either side of the trough between 124W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details about 
Tropical Storm Ivo across the offshore waters of Baja 
California. Hazardous wind and wave conditions, including large 
south to southwest swell, will continue between the coast of 
Mexico and Ivo through tonight as the storm passes across the 
far outer offshore waters. Dangerous surf conditions and 
potential for coastal flooding will prevail through tonight.

Elsewhere, fresh to strong southern winds are continuing across
the central and northern Gulf of California in part from
overnight convection that has now diminished and moved eastward
into northwest Mexico. These winds should diminish to moderate 
to fresh by this evening. Seas of up to 8 feet produced by these
winds will also subside.  SW swell from Ivo will continue to 
enter the entrance of the Gulf and maintain local seas of 5-8 ft.
Looking ahead, NW winds will strengthen to fresh speeds off the 
coast of Baja California Sur beginning Tuesday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A tropical wave will cross Central America tonight through
Sunday, producing numerous moderate to strong convection east of
95W over the next few days. Locally higher winds and waves can be
expected with this activity.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient across the region will 
result in mainly gentle to moderate winds for the next several 
days. Long period, cross-equatorial SW swell continues to impact 
the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of
5 to 7 ft. Seas will gradually subside through the weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak low pressure of 1011 mb has formed near 12N132W. This low
will likely not be long lived, and is forecast to open into a
tropical wave as it moves westward Sunday, passing west of 140W
on Monday. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is
located within about 90 nm of the center of this low in all
quadrants.

High pressure located just NW of the discussion area maintains a
broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 16N and west of 
124W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the 
influence of the ridge over the next couple days while the high 
pressure slowly moves westward. Elsewhere, a broad area of 
moderate to fresh SW to W winds persists south of Ivo and the 
monsoon trough and extends roughly between 115W and 135W. Seas of
8 ft or greater associated with Ivo cover the forecast waters 
from 13N to 25N between 106W and 120W. The aerial extent of these
high seas will shrink as Ivo weakens over the next couple of 
days. 

$$
KONARIK