000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241001 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Aug 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 21.4N 115.8W at 0900 UTC, moving toward the NNW at 9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central pressure remains 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight and then degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday afternoon. Ivo remains a small and tight low level circulation in satellite imagery, with scattered strong convection continuing to flare up within 210 nm across the SW quadrant. The current forecast track takes Ivo along the western boundary of Baja California offshore waters through the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect across the offshore forecast waters from Cabo San Lucas to Punta Eugenia. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue to impact the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos through late Sat while slowly subsiding. Moderate to long period SW swell between Ivo and the Baja California coast will reach the coasts of Baja California and wrap around the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula today through tonight, and reach both the east and western coastlines of the entrance to the Gulf of California. This swell combined with high astronomical tides will generate large and dangerous surf across the areas through tonight and possible areas of coastal flooding. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 108W north of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near the southern end of the wave axis from 06N to 12N between 103W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N74W TO 08N82W TO 09N107W, then resumes west of T.S. Ivo from 16N120W TO 12N131W TO 13N140W. Numerous strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N east of 80.5W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm N and 90 nm S of the trough between 82W and 86W, and between 98W and 104W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm either side of the trough between 120W and 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo across the offshore waters of Baja California. Hazardous wind and wave conditions, including large south to southwest swell, will continue between the coast of Mexico and Ivo through Sat night as the storm passes across the far outer offshore waters. Dangerous surf conditions and potential for coastal flooding will prevail today through tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong southerly winds are ongoing across central and northern Gulf of California. Large clusters of strong convection affected central portions of the Gulf overnight, and a 0500 UTC scatterometer pass confirmed SE to S winds of 20 to 30 kt from offshore of Los Mochis northward across the Tiburon Basin. Seas are assumed to have built 7-9 ft across the far north portions and 6-8 ft across central portions. Convection has since weakened and wind and seas across the area are expected to gradually diminish through this afternoon. Over the southern Gulf, moderate to fresh E to SE winds this morning will give was to moderate to fresh NW winds tonight through Sunday. SW swell from Ivo will continue to enter the entrance of the Gulf and maintain local seas of 5-8 ft. Looking ahead, NW winds will strengthen to fresh speeds off the coast of Baja California Sur early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. Long period, cross-equatorial SW swell continues to impact the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Seas will begin to subside tonight into Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure located just NW of the discussion area maintains a broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 16N and west of 124W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the influence of the ridge over the next couple days while the high pressure slowly moves westward. Elsewhere, a broad area of moderate to fresh SW to W winds persists south of Ivo and the monsoon trough and extends roughly between 115W and 135W. Seas of 8 ft or greater associated with Ivo cover the forecast waters from 13N to 25N between 106W and 120W. The aerial extent of these high seas will shrink as Ivo weakens over the next couple of days. $$ Stripling