000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240248 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 039 UTC Sat Aug 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 20.5N 115.5W at 24/0300 UTC, moving toward the NNW or 340 degrees at 9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Gradual weakening is forecast and Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night and then degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. The current forecast track places Ivo just along the western boundary of Baja California offshore waters through the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect across the offshore forecast waters from Cabo San Lucas to Punta Eugenia. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue to impact the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos through late Sat while gradually subsiding. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 104W north of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the southern end of the wave axis from 06N to 08.5N between 101W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 08.5N75.5W to 09N90W to 10N100W to 13N110W, then resumes west of T.S. Ivo from 14N120W to 12N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 12N between 110W and 112W, and from 10N to 12N between 129W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. Hazardous wind and wave conditions, including large southerly swell, will continue between the coast of Mexico and Ivo through late Sat as the storm passes across the far outer offshore waters. Elsewhere, fresh to strong southerly winds are ongoing across the northern Gulf of California. An earlier scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of these winds, forecast to reach 25 to 30 kt tonight, with seas briefly building to 8 ft. The local pressure gradient will relax across this area by Sat, which will allow winds to diminish through the weekend. Over the southern Gulf, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop this weekend as a trough expands northward along the Mexican coast from low pressure expected to develop near Cabo Corrientes. Looking ahead, NW winds will strengthen to fresh speeds off the coast of Baja California Sur early next week. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce some convective activity across central Baja California and central Gulf of California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. Long period, cross-equatorial SW swell continues to impact the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Seas will begin to subside tonight into Sat. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. High pressure of 1021 mb located near 31N143W maintains a broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 18N and west of 122W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the influence of the ridge over the next couple days while the high pressure slowly moves westward. Elsewhere, a broad area of moderate to fresh SW to W winds persists south of Ivo and the monsoon trough and extends roughly between 115W and 135W. Seas of 8 ft or greater associated with Ivo cover the forecast waters from 12N to 23N between 105W and 110W, and from 12N to 24N between 110W and 120W, including the entrance of the Gulf of California. The aerial extent of these high seas will shrink as Ivo weakens over the next couple of days. $$ GR