000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2030 UTC Fri Aug 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 19.7N 115.3W at 23/2100 UTC, moving NNW or 335 degrees at 9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Gradual weakening is forecast and Ivo is expected to be a tropical depression on Sunday, and then degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday night. The current forecast track places Ivo just along the western boundary of Baja California offshore waters through the weekend. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect across the offshore forecast waters from Cabo San Lucas to Punta Eugenia. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue to impact the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos through late Sat while subsiding. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 103W north of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave axis, and mainly from 05N to 13N between 100W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N90W to 10N100W to 13N110W, then resumes west of T.S. Ivo from 14N120W to 12N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 08N between 79W and 81W, from 10N to 12N between 108W and 110W, and from 11N to 13N between 129W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. Hazardous wind and wave conditions, including large southerly swell, will continue between the coast of Mexico and Ivo through late Sat as the storm passes across the far outer offshore waters. Elsewhere, strong southerly winds are ongoing across the northern Gulf of California to the east of a trough analyzed over Baja California. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 22N to 26N between 107W and 110W, including the southern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong southerly winds will persist over the northern and central Gulf of California through tonight, with seas briefly building to 8 ft. The local pressure gradient will relax across this area by Sat, which will allow winds to diminish through the weekend. Over the southern Gulf, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop this weekend as a trough expands northward along the Mexican coast from low pressure expected to develop near Cabo Corrientes. Looking ahead, NW winds will strengthen to fresh speeds off the coast of Baja California Sur early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. Long period, cross-equatorial SW swell continues to impact the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas will begin to subside by tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. High pressure of 1022 mb located near 31N140W maintains a broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 18N and west of 120W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail under the influence of the ridge over the next couple days while high pressure slowly moves westward. Elsewhere, a broad area of moderate to fresh SW to W winds persists south of Ivo and the monsoon trough and extends between 115W and 135W. The resulting long fetch has allowed seas to build to 8-11 ft well SE of the center of Ivo. As Ivo continues to move northward, winds and seas will diminish S of the monsoon trough this upcoming weekend. $$ GR