000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Aug 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 17.9N 114.5W at 0900 UTC moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. A motion generally north-northwest is expected during the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday with gradual weakening likely to begin Friday night or early Saturday. The current forecast track takes the center of Ivo just along the western or outer boundary of the Baja California offshore waters this morning through Saturday evening before Ivo weakens to a tropical depression and continues NNW along the far outer waters of central Baja California. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the outer portions of the forecast waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas, including Clarion Island. See the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. Ivo has become modestly sheared during the past 12 hours of so with the low level center moving NNW and the main clusters of convection continuing off toward the WNW. Overnight scatterometer data showed strong southerly winds across the offshore Mexican waters from about 15N beyond Las Tres Marias to offshore of Cabo San Lucas, and accompanied by scattered thunderstorms and seas 7-11 ft in mixed southerly wind waves and SW swell from Ivo. These marine condition will shift NW today and gradually weaken. However, expect continued across weather across the waters from the coast near Manzanillo to Cabo San Lucas and extending well offshore. S to SW swell from Ivo will also move into southern portions of the Gulf of California early this morning through early Sat morning to produce seas of 5-8 ft in the open waters, as well as large breaking waves along both coastlines. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 102W north of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is mainly noted well ahead of the wave, from 10N TO 20N between 101W AND 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W TO 08N81W to low pres near 11N98.5W TO 14N107W, then resumes west of T.S. Ivo from 14N121W TO 14N134W TO 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm S of the trough between 124W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. As mentioned above, overnight satellite wind data depicted an area of fresh to strong SE winds over the offshore waters west of Cabo Corrientes, between Ivo and 105W. These winds, combined with S to SW swell from Ivo, are likely producing 8-11 ft seas over the waters between Las Tres Marias and the Revillagigedo Islands. Hazardous wind and wave conditions, including large southerly swell, will continue between the coast of Mexico and Ivo through late Sat as the storm passes across the far outer offshore waters. Elsewhere, strong southerly winds are ongoing across the northern Gulf of California to the east of a trough analyzed over Baja California. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the Gulf through Fri night, with seas generally running 5-8 ft. The local pressure gradient will relax by Sat, which will allow winds over the northern and central Gulf to diminish through the weekend. Over the southern Gulf, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop this weekend as a trough expands northward along the Mexican coast from low pressure expected to develop near Cabo Corrientes. Looking ahead, NW winds will strengthen to fresh speeds off the coast of Baja California Sur early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. Long period, cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to impact the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri, supporting 6-7 ft seas over the southern waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. High pressure of 1022 mb located near 31N139W maintains a broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 120W. Overnight scatterometer data indicated moderate NE trade winds prevailed across the northern waters, except for fresh NE winds from 17N to 21N between 137W and 142W. These conditions will persist through the next couple days while high pressure slowly moves westward. Elsewhere, a broad area of fresh to strong SW to W winds persists south of Ivo and the monsoon trough and extends westward to 128W. The resulting long fetch has allowed seas to build to 8-11 ft well SE of the center of Ivo. As the monsoon trough west of Ivo continues to lift northward with the storm, the enhanced monsoonal flow combined with mixed swell will maintain 8-10 ft seas along the southern periphery of Ivo through Fri. The fresh to strong SW monsoonal flow south of the trough is forecast to break down Sunday as Ivo pulls the monsoon trough northward and E tradewinds build into the region south of the exiting Ivo between 110W and 130W. $$ Stripling