000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230243 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0240 UTC Fri Aug 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 16.9N 114.1W at 23/0300 UTC moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A motion generally north-northwest is expected during the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday with weakening likely to begin by Saturday. The forecast track takes the center of Ivo just west of the outer Baja California offshore waters. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the outer portions of the forecast waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas, including Clarion Island. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 100W north of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 93W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N90W to 12N103W, then resumes west of T.S. Ivo from 14N120W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 106W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 125W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. Earlier satellite wind data depicted an area of fresh to strong SE winds over the offshore waters west of Cabo Corrientes, between Ivo and high pressure over inland Mexico. These winds, combined with S to SW swell from Ivo, are likely producing 8-11 ft seas over the waters between Las Tres Marias and the Revillagigedo Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the entrance to the Gulf of California from 20N to 22N between 106W and 110W. Hazardous wind and wave conditions, including large southerly swell, will continue between the coast of Mexico and Ivo through Sun as the storm passes near the outer offshore waters. Elsewhere, strong southerly winds are ongoing across the northern Gulf of California to the east of a trough analyzed over Baja California. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the Gulf through Fri night, with seas generally running 5-7 ft. The local pressure gradient will relax by Sat, which will allow winds over the northern and central Gulf to diminish through the weekend. Over the southern Gulf, moderate to fresh NW winds will develop this weekend as a trough expands northward along the Mexican coast from low pressure expected to develop near Cabo Corrientes. Looking ahead, NW winds will strengthen to fresh speeds off the coast of Baja California Sur early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient across the region will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. Long period, cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to impact the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri, supporting 6-7 ft seas over the southern waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. High pressure located near 31N136W maintains a broad ridge across the forecast waters north of 20N. Earlier scatterometer data indicated moderate NE trade winds prevailed across the northern waters. These conditions will persist through the next couple days while high pressure slowly moves westward. Elsewhere, a broad area of fresh to strong SW to W winds persists south of Ivo and the monsoon trough. The resulting long fetch has allowed seas to build to 8-11 ft well SE of the center of Ivo. As the monsoon trough west of the storm continues to lift northward, the enhanced monsoonal flow combined with mixed swell will maintain 8-10 ft seas along the southern periphery of Ivo through Fri. $$ Reinhart