000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2114 UTC Thu Aug 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Ivo is centered near 16.1N 114.1W at 22/2100 UTC moving WNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Ivo is forecast to turn to the northwest on Friday and move north-northwestward over the weekend. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday with weakening likely to begin on Saturday. The forecast track takes the center of Ivo just west of the outer Mexican offshore waters, and tropical storm force winds are expected to impact the far western portion of the forecast zone from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas late tonight through Fri night, including Clarion Island. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 99W north of 05N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 91W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 11N101W, then resumes west of T.S. Ivo from 14N120W to 1011 mb low pressure near 14N132W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 24N between 103W and 110W, and within 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 123W and 129W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. Recent satellite wind data depicts an area of fresh to strong SE winds over the offshore waters west of Cabo Corrientes, between Ivo and high pressure over inland Mexico. These winds, combined with S to SW swell from Ivo, and likely producing 8-12 ft seas over the waters between Las Tres Marias and the Revillagigedo Islands. Expect hazardous wind and wave conditions, including large southerly swell, to continue between the coast of Mexico and Ivo through Sun as the storm passes just west of the area. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between 1022 mb high pressure near 32N136W and a trough along Baja California is producing gentle to moderate northerly winds over the outer Baja California waters. To the east of the trough, strong southerly winds are likely ongoing across the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong winds will persist through Fri night, with seas reaching 7-8 ft over the far northern Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is expected to produce only gentle to moderate winds across the region for the next several days. Long period cross equatorial SW swell will continue to impact the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri, maintaining seas to 6-7 ft over the southern waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details about Tropical Storm Ivo. The aforementioned high pressure located near 32N136W maintains a broad ridge across the forecast waters north of roughly 20N. Moderate NE trade winds prevail across this area per recent scatterometer data. These conditions will persist through the next couple days as high pressure drifts westward. Elsewhere, scatterometer data highlights an area of fresh to strong SW to W winds south of Ivo and the monsoon trough, roughly between 108W and 127W. As the monsoon trough continues to lift northward, this enhanced monsoonal flow will build seas to 9-11 ft along the southern periphery of Ivo through Fri. $$ Reinhart